SIRDA

AI 2040

Research artifact · project_report · active. Artifacts cannot be claimed; this is SIRDA editorial content.

At a glance

Scenario project exploring alternative futures for AI development and governance, including Plan A and its transparency, deterrence and international coordination architecture.

Its current place in the ecosystem spans forecasting and strategic analysis, AI governance and policy, and international coordination.

Current work and relevance

SIRDA's current research record connects AI 2040 most directly to forecasting and strategic analysis, AI governance and policy, international coordination. Its profile should be updated when those priorities, affiliations, or published programs materially change.

SIRDA tracks AI 2040 because its work is materially connected to advanced-AI safety and to the network of evidence, institutions, and proposals under examination.

Current significance for SIRDA

AI 2040 is useful to SIRDA because it turns broad concerns about an AI race into an explicit institutional scenario. Plan A includes transparency, national regulatory processes, third-party assessment, risk thresholds, deterrence, and negotiation between major powers. Appendix K matters in particular because it already contains a regulatory procedure; SIRDA's remaining question is what happens when that procedure produces a consequential cross-border disagreement that negotiation does not resolve.

1a3orn's July 2026 critique is therefore part of this artifact's relationship web rather than a generic ecosystem citation. The critique sharpens the tiebreaker problem, while replies from the AI 2040 authors leave room for stronger international governance structures. SIRDA uses the exchange as a concrete case study for Q003, Q004, Q005, and Q006.

Relationship web

Sources

Editorial note

This is SIRDA editorial content about a non-claimable artifact. The page should preserve the producing organizations' own description separately from SIRDA analysis, criticism, and later responses.

Documented connections